The key point of Donald Trump's book, The Art of the Deal, is essentially this: Make sure that the other guy has more to lose than you do. If you're going to win, you've got to have the upper hand. Events of the past two weeks indicate that he probably should have reread his book before putting his Presidency on the line by shutting down the government over The Wall.
In the stare down over the shutdown, Pelosi took Trump down.
Nancy Pelosi, who has played the political game many, many more years than Trump, was always going to win this one. Why? Simple. She had next to nothing to lose. Here's why:
First, Republicans and Trump's much talked about Base already hate her, so whatever she did about Trump's challenge, it couldn't possibly erode her position there. So simply saying "No" and repeating it hurt her not one bit there.
Second, as the leader of the House, which controls the money, Pelosi's "No," had real teeth. Trump's Wall cannot be built without House funding. And no funding happens (barring a national emergency) without House passage of a funding bill. And that wasn't happening without Democratic support. That was something that already was not going to happen.
Third, Trump's Base did not rise up and wave flags when the government lights went out. His Base was oddly silent. And those Federal workers he thanked for supporting him in his speech announcing the restart of the government? They were actually protesting, walking off the job, and complaining. The articles were all over the press. All the expected support for his move did not materialize. The Trump "anti-Washington asshole" persona finally had worn a bit too thin, just at the wrong time.
Then there were the absurd aspects: Trump had previously declared Obama's government shutdown an "impeachable offense." CNN and others had a field day with that. How about that fast food extravaganza for the Clemson football top dogs. Really? If you were going to pay for it with your own money, Trump, at least don't be insulting. The recent report by a reporter from inside one of the several tunnels under a section of southern border wall that does exist — used to transport drugs into the U.S. So much for the Wall stopping the flow of drugs (or anything else). And how about Trump trying to trade short-term protection (which is no protection at all) for Dreamers in exchange for his permanent Wall? A non-starter. Trump thought he had a real sucker punch there, but that was an easy "No" for the House Democrats.
Certainly, Trump doesn't see it as a failure. He never does. He sees himself as having taken the high road while still holding the line and retaining the ultimate winning card. He has, in fact, reserved the "right" to declare a national emergency to fund his Wall if, after three weeks, there isn't an agreement that works to his and his Republican friend's satisfaction. But most everyone else sees Nancy Pelosi as the victor here. That includes Breitbart News, Ann Coulter and a host of Trump's other dyed-in-the-wool adherents, who have castigated him for failing to hold the line and, instead, capitulating. Wondering if Trump will label Breitbart "fake news" now? That would be entertaining, to say the least.
In a couple of weeks, the deadline for an agreement will hit. Will Trump actually declare that national emergency to fund his Wall? Will the Democrats fight him? The latter seems almost certain. Why build a Wall when the evidence indicates so clearly that the real threats to the U.S. lie elsewhere? For example:
Of 4,000 suspected terrorists identified at ports-of-entry in the past few years, almost all were at airports and seaports. Only a few were on the southern border. In 2018, specifically, there were only six (that's right, six), according to U.S. Customs.
Sexual assault and other forms of abuse committed against migrants by those claiming to transport them is a real problem, and unacceptably high. Thirty percent for women, 10.7 percent for men. But the wall will do little to mitigate these problems. Easing transportation, entry and legitimization of migrants will.
Most important, the case for a "emergency" is very poor. A decade ago, the data in support of an emergency might have been better for Trump, but today's numbers are a fraction of those, and there are no ways to run the numbers today that can support a declaration of a national emergency. There is a much more compelling case to be made for expanding manpower and resources in the security teams at airports and seaports in particular, the southern border patrol (manpower, not slats) and asylum-seeker processing teams and facilities.
Trump's case for The Wall was a well-calculated appeal to the mostly irrational, inflated fears of his Base. It got him elected, for sure. But as a political strategy and, especially, as a building block in either improving the lot of those fleeing real oppression or Making America Great Again, its benefits are imaginary, at best, and wasteful, divisive and, in the long run, contrary to the image we ought to present to the world.
That image has already suffered much at his hands, and those familiar with what people outside the U.S. actually think know that it wasn't all that good to begin with. Building a Wall right now isn't our best play for that and a host of practical reasons that add up simply to It Won't Do What People Want It To. Ultimately, we've failed, once again, to learn from history. Walls didn't work for the Chinese or the Russians. Why do we think one will work for us?
Saturday, January 26, 2019
Monday, January 07, 2019
Trump goes to the Wall for The Wall
I suppose it shouldn't surprise us at this point. Irrational behavior has been demonstrated to be his normal. Lying, for example, just seems to be part of his daily routine. He doesn't need to be under attack by the "fake media" or even to have been caught misrepresenting something. Even in the best of times, he simply can't get his facts straight. And under duress? Well, he just says whatever makes him look good in the moment, right?
Take the Syria thing, for example. One day, he's taking all the troops out, totally freaking out everyone in the Pentagon and all our friends and even some foes in the Middle East. The next day, his top (and last remaining) cabinet general decides he's had enough, says this is crazy (basically) and quits, and the next day or so, Trump's remaining beleaguered supporters (Bolton, etc.) are desperately "walking back" (oh, what a master term of obfuscation) Trump's decision, and then Trump's on TV doing what? Well, what can he do? Opts for the flat-out, bald-faced lie: Tells the press: No, nothing's been walked back. Nothing's changed. Decision's the same as the day I made it. What are you guys talking about?
Of course, in his mind, that's how it is.
That brings us to the Wall. Which is now metal Slats, by the way. Oh, and Mexico isn't actually paying for it, er ... at least, not directly, you see. Because their payment is sort of mixed in (somehow) with the new deal that replaced NAFTA. Of course, no one, not even Trump, can point exactly to where in the agreement it says that, but it's there, by golly. Of course it is. Somehow, someway, Mexico pays for the Wall.
So now, Congress is duty bound to give Trump billions of dollars to build The Wall on his say-so alone. And because they haven't done so (surprise, surprise, they just aren't quite buying the idea that Mexico's payment is hidden somewhere in the new NAFTA), he's shut the government down until he gets what he wants.
Never mind that Mexico's president has flatly denied that any Wall payment is in the NAFTA-replacement deal.
Never mind that Trump declared flat out, when his predecessor, President Barack Obama shut down the government for 16 days over the Affordable Care Act, that shutting the government down was an impeachable offense.
Ms. Sanders, Trump's poor Press Secretary, in a desperate effort to find something with which to support Trump's grandstand play, came up with a startling statistic: More than 4,000 suspected terrorists, she said, had been apprehended at the southern U.S. border in 2018. Wow. Now that would be pretty convincing, were it true.
Sorry, it's not. Turns out those with more subtle abilities at fact checking have determined this week that the figure 4,000 indicated the number of suspected terrorists apprehended at all U.S. border crossings (primarily its airports) over a number of years. The number apprehended on our southern border in 2018? Six. That's right, the U.S. Customs Service reports a grand total of SIX. Not very compelling. Sounds like that Wall money could best be spent elsewhere?
Trump's in a hurry for his Wall, too. Why? Could be because he's out of time. Democrats now own the House. His poll numbers have never been that high, but they're real low now. And the economy suffered its worst performance at the end of 2018 since a decade ago at the low point that signaled the Great Recession. Mueller, who has wisely, and almost singly, kept a low profile, will not long continue to be silent about what he's found in his lengthening investigation into Russian ties to the 2016 Trump campaign. And Trump's big promise, of course, was to protect those frightened white folks who voted for him that he could protect them from the brown hordes that were going to invade from the South. (And truth is, there's not so much to protect them from.) Not to mention, it was his most solemn oath. it's the mission on which it all lives or dies. So far, he's failed miserably on that one.
He's also running out of friends. He's lost his generals. He's driven away a couple of West Wings full of mostly brilliant advisors he was mostly unwilling to listen to and was only too willing to publicly betray and ridicule. If the GOP backrooms were miked right now, you wouldn't hear much love flowing. Just discussions of how to stop the bleeding. Trump's got to have this one, or when the Truth comes out, and The Liar has to pay The Piper, even his electoral base won't be there for him.
When it all comes out, the Democrats won't have to impeach him. He is likely to face something even his most satisfied fans at the top of his poll numbers couldn't rescue him from. When half his family is indicted, the man who did not write The Art of the Deal (it was written for him) will have to make the only deal he'll be able to make: Resign the Presidency to save his family, and maybe even himself, from criminal indictment.
But, hey, if he gets his Wall? Then it was all part of the plan, right? "I never intended to be President for the whole thing? I said I'd get your the Wall, and I did it! America's great again! I'm great! It's all great!!"
He'll tell you with a perfectly straight face that he intended all along to resign midway through his first term. He'll tell you that most Presidents need two terms to accomplish their goals, but he'd done it in two years. He'll insist that's the way it really is. And nobody will be able to tell him different.
Take the Syria thing, for example. One day, he's taking all the troops out, totally freaking out everyone in the Pentagon and all our friends and even some foes in the Middle East. The next day, his top (and last remaining) cabinet general decides he's had enough, says this is crazy (basically) and quits, and the next day or so, Trump's remaining beleaguered supporters (Bolton, etc.) are desperately "walking back" (oh, what a master term of obfuscation) Trump's decision, and then Trump's on TV doing what? Well, what can he do? Opts for the flat-out, bald-faced lie: Tells the press: No, nothing's been walked back. Nothing's changed. Decision's the same as the day I made it. What are you guys talking about?
Of course, in his mind, that's how it is.
That brings us to the Wall. Which is now metal Slats, by the way. Oh, and Mexico isn't actually paying for it, er ... at least, not directly, you see. Because their payment is sort of mixed in (somehow) with the new deal that replaced NAFTA. Of course, no one, not even Trump, can point exactly to where in the agreement it says that, but it's there, by golly. Of course it is. Somehow, someway, Mexico pays for the Wall.
So now, Congress is duty bound to give Trump billions of dollars to build The Wall on his say-so alone. And because they haven't done so (surprise, surprise, they just aren't quite buying the idea that Mexico's payment is hidden somewhere in the new NAFTA), he's shut the government down until he gets what he wants.
Never mind that Mexico's president has flatly denied that any Wall payment is in the NAFTA-replacement deal.
Never mind that Trump declared flat out, when his predecessor, President Barack Obama shut down the government for 16 days over the Affordable Care Act, that shutting the government down was an impeachable offense.
Ms. Sanders, Trump's poor Press Secretary, in a desperate effort to find something with which to support Trump's grandstand play, came up with a startling statistic: More than 4,000 suspected terrorists, she said, had been apprehended at the southern U.S. border in 2018. Wow. Now that would be pretty convincing, were it true.
Sorry, it's not. Turns out those with more subtle abilities at fact checking have determined this week that the figure 4,000 indicated the number of suspected terrorists apprehended at all U.S. border crossings (primarily its airports) over a number of years. The number apprehended on our southern border in 2018? Six. That's right, the U.S. Customs Service reports a grand total of SIX. Not very compelling. Sounds like that Wall money could best be spent elsewhere?
Trump's in a hurry for his Wall, too. Why? Could be because he's out of time. Democrats now own the House. His poll numbers have never been that high, but they're real low now. And the economy suffered its worst performance at the end of 2018 since a decade ago at the low point that signaled the Great Recession. Mueller, who has wisely, and almost singly, kept a low profile, will not long continue to be silent about what he's found in his lengthening investigation into Russian ties to the 2016 Trump campaign. And Trump's big promise, of course, was to protect those frightened white folks who voted for him that he could protect them from the brown hordes that were going to invade from the South. (And truth is, there's not so much to protect them from.) Not to mention, it was his most solemn oath. it's the mission on which it all lives or dies. So far, he's failed miserably on that one.
He's also running out of friends. He's lost his generals. He's driven away a couple of West Wings full of mostly brilliant advisors he was mostly unwilling to listen to and was only too willing to publicly betray and ridicule. If the GOP backrooms were miked right now, you wouldn't hear much love flowing. Just discussions of how to stop the bleeding. Trump's got to have this one, or when the Truth comes out, and The Liar has to pay The Piper, even his electoral base won't be there for him.
When it all comes out, the Democrats won't have to impeach him. He is likely to face something even his most satisfied fans at the top of his poll numbers couldn't rescue him from. When half his family is indicted, the man who did not write The Art of the Deal (it was written for him) will have to make the only deal he'll be able to make: Resign the Presidency to save his family, and maybe even himself, from criminal indictment.
But, hey, if he gets his Wall? Then it was all part of the plan, right? "I never intended to be President for the whole thing? I said I'd get your the Wall, and I did it! America's great again! I'm great! It's all great!!"
He'll tell you with a perfectly straight face that he intended all along to resign midway through his first term. He'll tell you that most Presidents need two terms to accomplish their goals, but he'd done it in two years. He'll insist that's the way it really is. And nobody will be able to tell him different.
Without Fibbing (A Challenge)
There's one of these going around, and I usually don't do them.
But I liked this one, so here it goes. Instructions are simple: "Can you fill this out without fibbing?" Well ... let's see.
1. What was the last thing you put in your mouth? A sip of double-dark hot chocolate from my favorite coffee shop!
2. Where was your profile picture taken? On a hiking trail.
3. Worst pain you experienced? The pain of a major infection after surgery for burst appendix, age 12 (almost died, they tell me).
4. Favorite place you’ve traveled? Santa Fe & Taos, New Mexico, for the art. Fabulous art district in Santa Fe.
5. How late did you stay up last night? Four-forty-five. Yikes.
6. If you could, would you move somewhere else? Not a different city, but a better spot in the same city, one that would more realistically accommodate future plans.
7. Favorite toy as a kid? Plastic car models. No question. Worked at building them for hours and hours. Gluing, painting, parts all over my room.
8. Favorite TV show as a kid? The Adventures of Zorro. Don Diego de la Vega. Loved the name. Became fascinated with all things Espanol. (it was kind of groundbreaking for the 1950s, if you think about it.) Really wanted to be that guy. Oh, yeah.
9. How do you feel right now? Hopeful.
10. When was the last time you cried? Tears came to my eyes as I talked about the first time I became aware of the stage musical for Phantom of the Opera coming to Denver. I was just talking to Lily about it a few minutes ago.
11. Who took your profile photo? My favorite photographer, Lily.
12. Who is the last person you took a picture with? My son, Tony, and my grandson, Tony Jr.
13. What would your perfect career be? Published, successful novelist, with readers awaiting anxiously the next installment in the series.
14. Do you think relationships are worth it? Expensive, but yes. If not relationships, then ... what?
15. If you could talk to ANYONE right now who would it be? The Apostle Peter. I relate to him.
16. Are you a good influence? Depends.
17. Does pineapple belong on pizza? Didn't think so until I tried it. Surprise, surprise. It works!
18. You have the remote, what are you watching? No TV. But Like to watch movies and, with Lily, have a few TV series we share online: A Million Little Things and The Good Doctor are two ongoing. Veronica Mars was a favorite, but discontinued. (We hear it's coming back. Yay!)
19. Who do you think will play along? Maybe you?
But I liked this one, so here it goes. Instructions are simple: "Can you fill this out without fibbing?" Well ... let's see.
1. What was the last thing you put in your mouth? A sip of double-dark hot chocolate from my favorite coffee shop!
2. Where was your profile picture taken? On a hiking trail.
3. Worst pain you experienced? The pain of a major infection after surgery for burst appendix, age 12 (almost died, they tell me).
4. Favorite place you’ve traveled? Santa Fe & Taos, New Mexico, for the art. Fabulous art district in Santa Fe.
5. How late did you stay up last night? Four-forty-five. Yikes.
6. If you could, would you move somewhere else? Not a different city, but a better spot in the same city, one that would more realistically accommodate future plans.
7. Favorite toy as a kid? Plastic car models. No question. Worked at building them for hours and hours. Gluing, painting, parts all over my room.
8. Favorite TV show as a kid? The Adventures of Zorro. Don Diego de la Vega. Loved the name. Became fascinated with all things Espanol. (it was kind of groundbreaking for the 1950s, if you think about it.) Really wanted to be that guy. Oh, yeah.
9. How do you feel right now? Hopeful.
10. When was the last time you cried? Tears came to my eyes as I talked about the first time I became aware of the stage musical for Phantom of the Opera coming to Denver. I was just talking to Lily about it a few minutes ago.
11. Who took your profile photo? My favorite photographer, Lily.
12. Who is the last person you took a picture with? My son, Tony, and my grandson, Tony Jr.
13. What would your perfect career be? Published, successful novelist, with readers awaiting anxiously the next installment in the series.
14. Do you think relationships are worth it? Expensive, but yes. If not relationships, then ... what?
15. If you could talk to ANYONE right now who would it be? The Apostle Peter. I relate to him.
16. Are you a good influence? Depends.
17. Does pineapple belong on pizza? Didn't think so until I tried it. Surprise, surprise. It works!
18. You have the remote, what are you watching? No TV. But Like to watch movies and, with Lily, have a few TV series we share online: A Million Little Things and The Good Doctor are two ongoing. Veronica Mars was a favorite, but discontinued. (We hear it's coming back. Yay!)
19. Who do you think will play along? Maybe you?
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