A recent article in this past Sunday's New York Times captured my interest and reminded me about something I rarely own up to: I am a contrarian.
The article profiled Freeman Dyson (great first name), the most celebrated of today's small group of scientists who do not accept the current dogma on Global Warming. Dyson is not, as might be imagined, one to pooh-pooh concern for the environment. On the contrary, he is passionately dedicated to responsible use of the environment. Nor is he a crackpot. He is, in fact, one of the most accomplished scientists of his generation. He is, however, inclined to pooh-pooh science used inappropriately, even in support of a good cause.
Global Warming could be all that those who postulate its presence claim it to be. It could be entirely our fault (the result of excessive CO2 in the upper atmosphere, the result, in turn, of our excessive use of hydrocarbon fuels) and the greatest threat yet to our continued existence on this planet.
Alternatively it could be a significant threat that will surely change the way we live and upset the current environmental balance, thus significantly altering things — all things — leaving nothing as we know it now. Disruptive, to be sure, but not catastrophically destructive.
Or it could be a primarily natural occurrence — a continuation of a cycle of warming and cooling that the earth has experienced for far longer than we've had the ability to record history, one which we contribute to by burning hydrocarbons, but one that would happen in any case, no matter what we did.
Or, what we perceive as global warming could be a temporary, and relatively benign, wobble in a much longer warming/cooling cycle, a wobble that poses no serious or imminent threat.
Reasonable cases can be made for each position. Cases that account for the data we possess. (Keep in mind that the scientific claims on which global warming hinges involve a one degree difference in the average annual temperature recorded on Earth.)
Dyson pooh-poohs the idea that we can confidently extrapolate from meteorological evidence recorded over a tiny slice of geological time (one source says since 1847) sufficient evidence to support beyond a reasonable doubt any of these theories. He believes that much of the dire claims and warnings Al Gore recorded in his celebrated film are, for all he knows, just so much pooh-pooh. Gore could be right but he could just as easily be wrong. Dyson's basic contention (one I share) is that we just don't know. We simply don't have sufficient data.
Dyson performs the entirely necessary if disruptive service of the contrarian, loudly proclaiming, as a means of pursuing much needed balance, some heresy in the face of the rising tide of scientific certitude.
Personally, I have no problem with people believing that continuing to drive their gas-guzzling cars and denude the world of its forests will kill them. Fear is a pretty strong motivation. So if that's what it takes to motivate people to change, then so be it. We need to stop doing both (and a lot of other foolish things), and the sooner the better, for lots of good reasons (the fact that pollution is demonstrably bad for your health and is, therefore, killing you, for one) that have nothing to do with global warming.
But I don't think people need to believe a lie to do the right thing. And peddling a half-truth or a suspected truth as absolute truth may get things done in the short term, but I think that history testifies loud and clear that a lie, even in support of truth, ultimately tarnishes the truth. Truth that is not entirely true — that is mere supposition or assumption masquerading as truth, is often the worst kind of lie.
More power, then, to contrarians everywhere, who dare to question the received wisdom, sometimes at great cost, when "experts" get so sure of themselves that they no longer ask the questions that got them where they are.
NO!
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